[LEMONS]


1.06.2006

Expo Predictions

I've been covering Apple professionally since 2000, and for the last year, I've been writing at least one story per week on the digital audio market, primarily focused on Apple. I talk to developers, developers, developers very regularly, and on rare occasions, I learn something a little early about what Apple has up its sleeves. Or, um, supply chains.

Can a company have sleeves? I'm not sure.

In any case, one thing I've learned is that it's useless to predict what Apple is going to roll out. Unless, of course, you're talking about the Cube, nano, shuffle, or ROCKR. But this time around, Apple has done a pretty good job of maintaining it's secrets, with one notable exception. But I'm going to take a shot anyway. Legal eagles be aware, I have no inside knowledge about any of these. (Well, there is one thing, but even it's speculative. You'll see.) These aren't forecasts, just guesses, and yours is as good as mine. That said, here are my predictions for Macworld Expo 2006.

• Intel Macs: This is the show stopper. It's easy to forget, in all the iPod hullabaloo, that Apple is a computer company. No, seriously, the name of the company is Apple Computer. I know, I know, it sounds crazy. But check out the copyright notice at the bottom of this page. They also make these things called "Macs" that you can plug your iPod into when you want to load it up with music.
  
  Anyhoo.
  
  We know that 2006 is the year that Apple's going to jam an Intel chip into the guts of a Mac, accomplishing at least three things at once. First, it's going to cause a lot of self-righteous, indignant, and extremely pasty people to flip the fuck out, and bitch and moan and whine before they run out and buy one because, really, who loves you, baby? (And don't you forget it.) Second, faster chips. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You show me your photoshop render and I'll show you mine. Whatever. They're going to be fast and , equally important, cooler. Not Fonzie cooler or whatever-the-opposite-of-David-Spade-is cooler, but cooler as in you'll be able to set your 3GHz PowerBook in your lap without roasting your chestnuts, cooler.
  
  I think we're going to see one or more of these for the first time at Expo. There are rumors about an iBook and a Mac Mini with Intel Inside, and if I had to wager money I'd go with the latter. But I wouldn't even be surprised to see an XServe with an Intel chip. Shipping? No way. But soon. And announced next week.
  
  This is Steve's biggest move since he returned to Apple. Bigger, even than convincing everyone they needed to switch to the latest version of NeXt and getting them all to call it OS X. Because, after all, that really was Amelio's bag, even if it was Jobs' baby.
  
  So when he announced that the PowerPC is getting the dogcow treatment, naturally it caused something of a minor apocalypse in the MACS RULE/PCS DROOL microverse. Personally, I couldn't care less. Build it with a processor made from nanoscopic orangutans, for all I care, just as long as it works well.
  
  But that's the bitch, showing that it works well. Jobs needs to show something to the doubters that will convince them this was a good move. He also needs a product or two in the supply line that will stimulate new Mac sales. More pie in the sky pronouncements about what's to come in July could have the opposite effect.
  
  
• Media, Media, Media: Apple Computer is a media company now. The iTunes Music Store sells TV shows and music (quite a lot of it). The new iMac is a media center made for those of us longing to consolidate our TVs, DVRs, CD players, DVD players, and stereos into one device. The iPod is a media-dependent consumer electronics device. Final Cut Pro. DVD Studio Pro. Motion. Soundtrack. GarageBand. Aperture. iPhoto. iMovie. iDVD. QuickTime. Oh, did I mention Pixar? There's going to be a lot about media at this Expo. We'll hear a lot about new ways to use your Mac to consume and create media. New TV shows will be announced for sale on the iTunes Music Store. There might even be a movie or two...
  
  
• iLife '06: I feel pretty safe in this one, seeing as how it was, you know, already accidentally announced, and everything. I'm even going to go out on a limb here and say there's going to be an application called iWeb that's going to make it easy to publish your photos, videos, music and more. Import a photo from your camera to iPhoto, and publish it to your blog with the click of a button using iWeb. Or at least, that's my hope. Why it's taken the folks who practically invented desktop publishing a decade to release a simple all-in-one web publishing tool is beyond me. But I'm guessing iWeb will be it.
  
  
• Shuffle Kerfluffle: Oh, 1GB shuffle. You were here, then gone, and now you are back again, causing Apple speculators such as myself to scratch their heads and wonder WTFBBQ? But even though it's back in the Apple Store again, it's been one year since this line came out and it needs to be refreshed. Colors? More capacity? Even smaller form factors? I don't know. But it's going to change.
  
  
• Colors: The iPod mini was Apple's best-selling iPod. Market research indicates that the nano has taken its place, which makes sense. Most people don't need space for tens of thousands of songs, nor do they have any plans to use an iPod as a video player. But here's where I was wrong. When Apple rolled out the minis, I remember saying something to the effect of, "how fey, who wants a pink one?"
  
  Well, apparently a lot of people. A lot. Of people. The minis' color schemes were a hit, especially with women (if I'm to believe what accessory makers, who do all sorts of market research, tell me). This might be the shuffle rev I refer to above, but it makes sense to add some more colors to the nano line. Possibly even the video line as well. One obvious choice? Red. We already saw a red click-wheel on one model. Black seems to be popular. How about a red one?
  
  
• Bluetooth: We all know this is coming eventually. At some point, we're going to have a Bluetooth iPod, and my guess is that it's going to arrive in 2006, though probably not at Expo. (As an anecdote: one third-party developer flat-out told me on the record that their very-popular, super-incredible thingamabob "is also going to work with the next generation of Bluetooth iPods." Bluetooth makes a bundle of sense. Besides, I just like saying Bluetooth. Have you seen me in my Bluetooth headset? Oh, it's dork-a-licious. But, as I said, this is going to be the Intel-a-go-go, not the iPodpalooza. Aside from the shuffle kerfluffle and color ka-snuzzle, I'm not expecting much. But I am hoping.
  
  
• Free Beer: This final note, I am extremely confidant of. There will be free beer at Expo. And it's going to be all mine.

Peace out, losers. I'll see you next week at Moscone.

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